云计算市场现马太效应 行业将进入巨头竞争时代

北京时间5月4日晚间,阿里巴巴集团公布其最新财报,阿里云在2018财年(2017年4月至2018年3月)营收达21.35亿美元,季度营收连续12个季度保持规模翻番。

事实上不仅仅是阿里云,“3A”中的其他两“A”的业绩也保持高速增长态势。根据最新一季度财报显示,微软旗舰云产品Azure营收增长93%,唯一盈利的云计算厂商亚马逊AWS增长速度也达到了49%,为连续第二个季度增长。

不过值得注意的是,云计算行业是一个重资产行业,需要持续不断的资金投入才能保证一定的市场份额。从目前的市场状况来看,小型、单一的云服务企业已经无力与巨头正面竞争,云计算市场份额向头部玩家聚集的趋势日益明显。业内分析人士认为,小的云服务商必须在某些更细分专业的市场里发展才能生存下去。

云业务保持高速增长

从阿里公布的财报数据来看,2018财年阿里巴巴营收约合398.98亿美元,其中电子商务贡献了绝大部分的营收,但是从增长速度看,阿里云无疑会成为未来拉动阿里巴巴业绩增长的关键:2018财年,阿里巴巴营收同比增长58%,同期电子商务营收同比增长60%,而阿里云同比增长101%。另外,据阿里云公布,云业务季度营收已经连续12个季度保持规模翻番。

对于云业务的增长,阿里云方面表示主要是受付费客户的增长及高附加值产品带来的收入结构改善等因素的影响。

可以看到的是,在过去的1年里,阿里云在不断强调人工智能应用的落地,其中不仅仅包括城市大脑,还包括工业大脑、航空大脑等各种行业解决方案。云计算分析师罗亮在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示,这类高价值增值服务的推出,不但可以使得阿里云在市场上形成差异化的竞争优势,还能进一步改善阿里云的毛利率。“以整个财年来看,阿里云2018财年EBITA Margin为亏损6%,好于2017财年的亏损8%“

不过,与云计算行业老大亚马逊相比,阿里云还需要多加努力。以两者最新一季度的数据对比,阿里云2018财年第四季度(2018年1月到3月)营收规模为6.99亿美元,而亚马逊AWS2018年第一季度营业收入为54.4亿美元,运营收入为14亿美元,运营利润率达25.8%,占亚马逊总运营收入的73%。

市场开始出现两极分化

尽管目前云计算市场除了亚马逊AWS盈利外,其他巨头仍处于亏损状态,但是从当前的业绩表现及发展趋势来看,都保持了非常高的增长速度。不过另一方面,中小云计算厂商的日子却不那么好过。

从产业格局来看,云计算市场份额向头部企业集中的趋势日益明显。根据Gartner全球云计算市场统计,亚马逊、微软、阿里云占据前三,其余厂商份额总和仅为1%左右。中国市场虽然没有那么夸张,但是情况类似。根据IDC数据统计结果显示,阿里云、腾讯云、金山云三家就瓜分了中国超六成的云计算市场份额,其中阿里云一家就占了47.6%。

Synergy Research Group首席分析师兼研究总监John Dinsdale在相关研究报告中指出,从数据中心的巨额资本支出就可以看出云计算领域创业公司与巨头竞争失败的原因。

据Synergy Research报告显示,Google、Microsoft、Amazon、Apple、Facebook位列2017年Q4超大规模资本支出前五名,他们每个季度在数据中心领域的投资超过了130亿美元。John Dinsdale认为,很少有企业能够负担得起每个季度数十亿美元的数据中心资金支出,而这限制了竞争的能力。

因此尽管公有云市场增长很快,市场规模也很大,但是这个市场除了资金以外,技术和生态建设等壁垒都很高,对于中小云计算厂商而言,没有长期持续的投入,很难见成绩。

而且这种情况还有可能进一步恶化,据高盛此前的一份报告预测,到2019年,中小云计算厂商的市场份额将从如今的25%萎缩至2%,未来云计算市场将被亚马逊AWS、微软云、谷歌云和阿里云寡头垄断。

在业内人士看来,对于小型的、单一的云服务企业而言,必须在某些更细分专业的市场里发展,才有可能在接下来的竞争中存活下来。

本文主要内容引自 凤凰网

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