何小鹏“再怼”特斯拉,智能汽车缘何不如人意

何小鹏在微博中说:好多朋友问我为什么涨的这么厉害,说实话我也看不懂。作为一个持有大量Tesla和少数几家汽车股票的从业者,我一直坚持认为十年内,智能汽车会有多家市值在1000亿-10000亿美元以上的公司。Tesla、苹果都是非常有力的选手,小鹏汽车也会努力早日到达;但是汽车和手机差异巨大,很难形成巨大的赢者通吃和超高毛利,因此我暂时没有看到当前如此高估值的逻辑,除非是真正的长线持有者。今天中国的疫情给我们一点心的提示,即使高自动辅助能力的驾驶时代到来,私有车辆模式的比例还是会远远超过全职共享模式;当前中国在智能汽车时代重视数量而不重视质量的情况已经被不少人真正意识到,但是还远远不够。

按理说,“大量持有特斯拉股票”的何小鹏,应该心情不错,近来特斯拉股价飙升,一度突破900美元大关。

然而,外界从他的微博中感受到了矛盾和压抑的情绪。一方面,他写道,“我一直坚持认为十年内,智能汽车会有多家市值在1000亿~10000亿美元以上的公司”;另一方面,他却想不通当前特斯拉高估值背后的逻辑,因为身为马斯克的同行,何小鹏认为智能汽车现在的发展水平还“远远不够”。

这已经不是何小鹏第一次说破“皇帝没穿衣服”了。去年他就曾直言,新能源汽车市场的繁荣多半是企业的自嗨,卖给普通消费者的只有十几万辆。该说法引起业界一片哗然,虽然反驳声不绝于耳,但下半年节节下滑的整体销量多少说明,新能源汽车仍未真正赢得用户的芳心。

如今,何小鹏就智能汽车再次发声,我们内心的认同感似乎更强了。尤其当“5G”、“AI”成为高频热词,汽车已不再是单一交通工具,它被视为家与办公室之外的“第三空间”。

然而到目前为止,“智能汽车”并未真正实现颠覆性创新,它搭载的大部分黑科技,说好听了是锦上添花,说不好听就是可有可无,难怪何小鹏会有上述不满言论。

汽车的智能化,不在语音点歌或帮你找餐厅停车场上,这些都是雕虫小技。作为人们生活中最重要的“空间”之一,智能汽车将是我们又一个堡垒和港湾,带给我们自由、舒适、愉悦的生活体验。未来智能汽车能实现多少功能无法估量,因为它有无限可能,但我们能够确定的是,实现这一切必须以汽车的本源为出发点,即保证人们的出行安全。

现在乃至未来的很长一段时间,驾驶者依旧是出行安全的决定因素,即使车身结构更科学,辅助驾驶功能更丰富,在车辆实现百分之百自动驾驶,将人彻底解放出来前,汽车的角色都很难发生本质上的变化。

而在此次新型冠状病毒疫情爆发后,我们对于车辆安全的要求,又上升到了新的维度,不仅要保证行驶安全,还要守护我们的生命健康。

因疫情导致的对公共交通工具的不信任,使人们的出行刚需更多要依靠私家车来满足。2003年非典过后,国内车市就曾出现过销售高潮,虽然今昔不同往日,但不少业内专家和车企领导仍坚信,疫情过后消费者需求会有一轮释放。

吉利品牌销售公司总经理宋军在独家回应水滴汽车APP时表示:“疫情对一季度的销量影响应该会比较大,但长远看影响有限。基于疫情期间对公共交通工具的恐慌,众多消费者或许会选择购买私家车作为替代出行工具,尤其是三四线市场,购买力将得到进一步释放,而15万以下车型的增长将迎来一大利好。”

何小鹏也在文博中写道,“今天中国的疫情给我们一点新的提示,即使高自动辅助能力的驾驶时代到来,私有车辆模式的比例还是会远远超过全职共享模式。”

目前看来,汽车距离人们的要求与期待还差得远。不过好消息是,不少车企已经意识到“第三空间”的核心所在。

日前,吉利汽车宣布,先期将投入3.7亿元,启动具备病毒防范功能的“全方位健康汽车”的研发工作。吉利汽车表示,“全方位健康汽车”将有别于专业的医用防护用车,是主要面向普通消费者的消费级产品,不仅具备吉利汽车产品已有的隔绝外部空气中有害物质、快速高效净化车内空气等功能,还将重点突破车内病毒防范功能和技术,有效抑制并降低病毒对人体的侵害,实现更具实用价值的“全方位健康”。

或许,过去我们对于智能汽车的认识,就像何小鹏看待特斯拉一样,也存在着矛盾与不解。一方面,我们的思想保守,脑洞并未真正打开,结果造成大量传统汽车“嫁接”智能手机的同质化产品出现;另一方面,我们遗失了初心,忘记事物的发展不能脱离本源,导致真正意义上的“第三空间”迟迟没能诞生。

此次突如其来的疫情,说不定会是一次转折。虽然它给汽车行业带来了巨大冲击,但也在一定程度上推动了我们的认知升级,并且倒逼企业重新思考智能汽车的本源和终极使命,在危机中发现新的机遇。

317 thoughts on “何小鹏“再怼”特斯拉,智能汽车缘何不如人意”

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